Category Archives: India-US Relations Blog

The Voice of the Majority – 2 – Religion & Regime Stability?

In the first article of this series, the following was deemed self-evident:

  • The majority in every society or country expects its religion, its culture, and its belief systems to be respected and supported by its government.

A corollary of this self-evident fact is:

  • A regime that is seen, felt and recognized to be respectful and supportive of the majority religion tends in turn to be supported the majority of the people.

The events of the past 2-3 weeks demonstrate the truth of this corollary.

Does any one think Pakistan is richer than Egypt or Tunisia? Does anyone think that Pakistan provides its youth greater career opportunities than Egypt or Tunisia? Does any one think that Pakistan is less corrupt than Egypt? No.

Yet, we have not seen a single protest demonstration in Pakistan. And we have seen massive demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt. The leader of Tunisia fled the country and his regime is in tatters. Yesterday, President Mubarak of Egypt announced his decision to step down in the face of huge protests in Cairo and Alexandria. Despite his 32-year reign, no one in Egypt has been willing to stand up in support of Mr. Mubarak. The Obama Administration and the Western European Governments have essentially dumped him.

The leaders of Tunisia and Egypt were and are secular men. They went out of their way to diminish the hold of religion on their people and they were ruthless against the proponents of the majority religion of their people. These leaders were the ones who created the education systems that educated the young men who have now risen against these leaders.

Look at the other regimes that seem to be trouble in the Middle East, Jordan, Bahrain, possibly Kuwait. These regimes, like Egypt & Tunisia, are generally secular; they have implemented western education systems and have discouraged overly strong influence of religion.

In each of these countries, the western educated segments are small and urban. The young “educated” people think of themselves as almost western and expect similar living standards. These “educated” youth are popular with American anchors who can interview them on American TV. They come across as just like young Americans or Europeans, young people who want the same things western young people want. It makes for lovely TV.

The Iranian students of 1978-1979 were just like these young people in Tunisia and Egypt. The Shah of Iran was like Ben-Ali of Tunisia and Mubarak of Egypt. He was dumped unceremoniously by his “bff” America and fled the country like Ben-Ali of Tunisia. Mubarak of Egypt seems made of sterner stuff and his fate is still unclear.

The Iranian Students that rioted in 2009 in Tehran were just like the Iranian Students of 1978-79, like Tunisian and Egyptian students we see today. But today’s Iranian regime is totally different. The Theocratic Regime in Iran has the support of the majority of Iranian people who are deeply conservative and religious. This is why the revolting Iranian students of 2009 received no support from the Iranian majority. This is why the Iranian regime could crush the revolt and tell the western world to bug off. And the Iranian regime won.

Today’s Pakistan is a basket case despite billions of dollars of U.S. aid. Actually Pakistan, a land with 170 million people, gets far less aid than does Egypt, a country of 80 million people. Yet, Pakistan has seen no riots about the price of bread, about the lack of jobs.

Is it because the Pakistani regime is as anti-secular as it can get? Is it because Pakistan’s religious establishment has a stake in supporting the regime, especially against American & European pressures? Is this why no American Anchor would dare to walk around Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar with a TV camera and crew to interview people in the streets? Is this lack of access to American TV another protective cover for the Pakistani regime?

President Mubarak’s Egyptian regime was a true loyal friend of America for 32 years. President Mubarak was the first to accept American Iraq, the first supporter of America’s War on Terror. President Obama chose Cairo, Egypt’s Capital, to deliver his major address to the world’s Muslims. Yet, the moment he became inconvenient, President Obama sent his envoy to Egypt to tell Mr. Mubarak to not seek an additional term.

In stark contrast, a U.S. Congressional delegation pleaded with Pakistan’s President Zardari to obtain a release of an American Diplomat who has been held in jail despite his diplomatic immunity. The Congressional delegation failed. And this is a Pakistani Government that is accused of being duplicitous and diverting American anti-terror aid to the Taleban, America’s enemies.

This is the difference between leaders/regimes that cultivate & placate the majority religion in their countries and leaders/regimes who scorn their majority religion under the banner of being “secular” and “modern”. Support of the majority gives the first set their power and immunity from America’s pressure. The second set! They get nothing from their majority because they gave the majority nothing.

How does this discussion relate to core India or US-India Relations? That is the topic for the next article.

The Obama Visit and U.S.-India Relations

During those remarkable years when Indian students were flocking to U.S. colleges, acquiring skills and reputations that eventually made them the highest earning ethnic group in the U.S, the two governments were doing their damnest to destroy the relationship. Many in both governments still don’t know any better, although it is the government in Delhi that is drifting closer into dangerous waters, led by a captain without the strength to curb odd ministers running their own foreign policy. The reasons the U.S. government didn’t like Delhi in those years lay chiefly in Indira Gandhi’s bizarre attempt to enter the nuclear club in 1974, and of course the CIA’s mischievous assessment that India was a Soviet ‘ally’. The end of the cold war and George Bush’s nuclear deal should have flattened those hurdles, once and for all. The hurdles are gone, but ending a bad relationship is not the same as getting into a new one. Manmohan Singh’s courageous and tenacious performance in Parliament on the nuclear deal saw Indian political leadership at its best. The U.S. government’s worldwide arm twisting to get India the NSG waiver, demonstrated what a super power can do, when it stretches itself for a friend. Since then it’s been all downhill.

France and Russia have got the civil nuclear contracts, after the U.S. did the heavy lifting. Russia has been given the fifth generation fighter contract after the U.S. promised 100 GE 414 jet engines for India’s collapsed jet fighter project. Despite the government’s directive to all ministries to crank up the agenda for President Obama’s visit, a huge hole was created by Antony’s Ministry of Defense which is facing in a different direction. The Ministry believes that the Communications Security Agreement (CISMOA) is a devious and deliberate American plot to eavesdrop on Indian communications, as if the National Security Agency in Washington has no other means to achieve the same objective. The Logistics Agreement would have been hugely beneficial to the navy and air force to extend their reach, using U.S. assets worldwide. It was an agreement that the PLA would have paid billions for. Reciprocal facilities for unpopular U.S. wars could always have been turned down in special circumstances as Turkey did in 2002.The Indian MOD has shut the Indian armed forces off from advanced world technology by refusing to consider both. The U.S. President’s visit was eventually carried off by President Obama and Michelle Obama’s hugely effective public posturing, and some heroic behind the scene actions by corporate India and the U.S.-India CEO’s forum. Even so, the French and the Chinese signed an equal if not larger clutch of business deals with India. The President of the U.S. has a limited charter, unlike New Delhi, where there are Ministers for Coal, steel, petroleum, water, fertilizer, shipping, airlines, roads etc. So New Delhi has not yet grasped the essentials of the new world that it has to live in.

China has overtaken Japan as the world’s second wealthiest nation. Its GDP is $ 5 trillion against India’s $1.3 trillion. By 2020 both GDPs could quadruple, thereby increasing the gap from $ 3.7 to 14.8 trillion (India $ 5.2 trillion vs. China $ 20 trillion). From dams on the Brahmaputra to the Tibetan border, to the Indian Ocean – China’s power and arrogance is something India will have to live with. But how?

Will we see another Krishna Menon cozying upto China, our great Asian ‘brother’, when eventually Nehru had to write to JFK for 12 squadrons of fighter bombers, ‘flown by U.S. pilots’? There are even more unanswered questions. Will the Indian Air Force and Indian Navy sit out a Himalayan war, as they did in 1962 in the collective belief that their contribution to help the army could only make things worse? We don’t need an alliance with the US. We don’t need to get into a fight with China- not now, not ever. But how do we avoid one? Only by playing to China’s belief in Real Politik. To do that, India needs the U.S’ world class defense technology. Israel, France and Russia are alright for the middle level stuff. To get the world class stuff from the U.S. we need a relationship run by governments. The U.S.-India business councils, the Indian-Americans and the CEO’s forum can only do so much. India’s MOD cannot run its own foreign policy either.

The Year in India-US Relations

If the year in India-U.S. relations could be conveyed through pithy phrases, two immediately come to mind. 2010 was the year in which the wheel turned full circle, with the U.S. once again turning its attention towards India after its advances were rejected by a rising China, intent on blazing its own path on the world stage. After the heady highs of the Bush Administration, the Obama Administration’s half-hearted and confused approach towards India had been a party pooper, and even the Singh state visit at the end of the previous year couldn’t hide the perceptible decline in spirits.  Keeping President Obama’s November visit as a deadline, both governments searched high and low for the next big idea, a la the nuclear deal to bring the zing back into the relationship. The nuclear deal itself became the sum of many deals as the Reprocessing Agreement signed in March of this year was followed by the passage of the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill by the Indian Parliament. Both procedure and outcome were mired in controversy, with India then signing the Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage (CSC) to resolve concerns expressed by both the U.S. government and American companies over their liability in case of a mishap.
The other phrase that comes to mind is reinventing the wheel. June 2010 saw three Indian ministers accompanied by a phalanx of bureaucrats descend on Washington for the Strategic Dialogue that had been upgraded to ministerial level. Eighteen separate dialogues took place under the overall umbrella of the Strategic Dialogue, but they ultimately amounted to picking up the threads from where the Bush Administration had left off. Among the new areas dialogued about were co-operation in science and technology, research for clean energy and monsoon prediction, health and education, and women’s empowerment, but these were largely derided as soft issues to shift focus from an absence of dialogue on the hard issues to do with regional security. With the partnership now being tagged as “indispensible”, the million dollar question was what was so indispensible about India to the United States other than its large market? While an Indian Prime Minister had coined the phrase “natural allies” to describe the relationship, the geo-politics of the day and the shifting sands of international relations have put paid to that proposition for the time being.
It may well be said that such rhetoric is meant for public consumption, but even the most hyperbolic statement would still contain a kernel that would provide an indicator of the future direction of the relationship. But in this particular instant, even a word cloud analysis does not throw up any indicator of future trends. At best, the removal of sanctions on many Indian science entities might pave the way for increased technology sharing. (For the full wish list, go here).  The quid pro quo could well be India signing the so called foundational agreements that would enable the U.S. to sell its state-of-the-art military equipment to India. There has already been movement in this direction with reports of a bilateral technical group to look into the issues being set up immediately post the Obama visit. The visit itself saw Obamamania sweeping the country; with wall-to-wall coverage and media frenzy of the type that the President would probably have last seen on his election night.
Coming to other straws in the wind, and seeing as this has become a free-wheeling blog post, there were other sets of wheels that showed that American companies were finally making their way into the Indian mind and the Indian market. Harley Davidson made it to Indian roads, though with a little help from Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, by his own admission, and ably backed up by Wikileaks. And an American car, the Ford Figo became the new kid on the block, selling almost 60,000 units and being voted as the Indian Car of the Year. Thanks to the Figo, Ford recorded an incredible 185% increase in sales in India year on year.  Ford, like other American companies has found it a hard slough in the Indian market, but it has ultimately paid off. While the American market is an equally tough one to crack for Indian companies other than the well established ones, hopes that the Adam tablet from the Indian startup, Notionink, the first to crack the competitive high technology American consumer space were belied by delays in production that even led to talk of Adam being vapourware. Not the best way to go about being a trailblazer.
What else, the soft power of the two countries would have been at equilibrium, but for the sudden appearance of Pamela Anderson on the sets of Big Boss, the Indian equivalent of the reality show Big Brother. Hollywood films ran rampant on Indian screens, with the top ten movies, dubbed and otherwise, grossing almost $450 million in the Indian box office. Unlike 2009, however, when Avatar had beaten My Name is Khan to become the top grosser in India, this year, at least, Hindi films managed to hold their own. The Indian Diaspora in the United States contributed substantially to the bottomline of the Hindi film industry with the top ten movies grossing about $ 20 million at the American box office. One of the more bizarre suggestions that one got to know of through Wikileaks was that of harnessing Bollywood’s soft power and have Bollywood stars do the equivalent of a USO tour in Afghanistan to lift up the spirits of the locals, but one that was apparently never acted upon.
What will 2011 bring? More leaks from the U.S. Embassy in Delhi, for sure. With just 1947 out of the 251,287 cables released, there should be at least a few more to add to the 39 embassy cables that have so far seen the light of day. In the bilateral context, the cables show that Indian and American diplomats are formal in their interlocutions, judicious in their words, play their cards close to their chest, and give as good as they get.  The terms of endearment are evidently different in this still somewhat prickly partnership. But is that the reason why the wheel had to turn full circle is something to be considered as we enter the New Year.

If the year in India-U.S. relations could be conveyed through pithy phrases, two immediately come to mind. 2010 was the year in which the wheel turned full circle, with the U.S. once again turning its attention towards India after its advances were rejected by a rising China, intent on blazing its own path on the world stage. After the heady highs of the Bush Administration, the Obama Administration’s half-hearted and confused approach towards India had been a party pooper, and even the Singh state visit at the end of the previous year couldn’t hide the perceptible decline in spirits.  Keeping President Obama’s November visit as a deadline, both governments searched high and low for the next big idea, a la the nuclear deal to bring the zing back into the relationship. The nuclear deal itself became the sum of many deals as the Reprocessing Agreement signed in March of this year was followed by the passage of the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill by the Indian Parliament. Both procedure and outcome were mired in controversy, with India then signing the Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage (CSC) to resolve concerns expressed by both the U.S. government and American companies over their liability in case of a mishap.

wordcloud

The other phrase that comes to mind is reinventing the wheel. June 2010 saw three Indian ministers accompanied by a phalanx of bureaucrats descend on Washington for the Strategic Dialogue that had been upgraded to ministerial level. Eighteen separate dialogues took place under the overall umbrella of the Strategic Dialogue, but they ultimately amounted to picking up the threads from where the Bush Administration had left off. Among the new areas dialogued about were co-operation in science and technology, research for clean energy and monsoon prediction, health and education, and women’s empowerment, but these were largely derided as soft issues to shift focus from an absence of dialogue on the hard issues to do with regional security. With the partnership now being tagged as “indispensible”, the million dollar question was what was so indispensible about India to the United States other than its large market? While an Indian Prime Minister had coined the phrase “natural allies” to describe the relationship, the geo-politics of the day and the shifting sands of international relations have put paid to that proposition for the time being.

It may well be said that such rhetoric is meant for public consumption, but even the most hyperbolic statement would still contain a kernel that would provide an indicator of the future direction of the relationship. But in this particular instant, even a word cloud analysis does not throw up any indicator of future trends. At best, the removal of sanctions on many Indian science entities might pave the way for increased technology sharing. (For the full wish list, go here).  The quid pro quo could well be India signing the so called foundational agreements that would enable the U.S. to sell its state-of-the-art military equipment to India. There has already been movement in this direction with reports of a bilateral technical group to look into the issues being set up immediately post the Obama visit. The visit itself saw Obamamania sweeping the country; with wall-to-wall coverage and media frenzy of the type that the President would probably have last seen on his election night.

Coming to other straws in the wind, and seeing as this has become a free-wheeling blog post, there were other sets of wheels that showed that American companies were finally making their way into the Indian mind and the Indian market. Harley Davidson made it to Indian roads, though with a little help from Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, by his own admission, and ably backed up by Wikileaks. And an American car, the Ford Figo became the new kid on the block, selling almost 60,000 units and being voted as the Indian Car of the Year. Thanks to the Figo, Ford recorded an incredible 185% increase in sales in India year on year.  Ford, like other American companies has found it a hard slough in the Indian market, but it has ultimately paid off. While the American market is an equally tough one to crack for Indian companies other than the well established ones, hopes that the Adam tablet from the Indian startup, Notionink, the first to crack the competitive high technology American consumer space were belied by delays in production that even led to talk of Adam being vapourware. Not the best way to go about being a trailblazer.

What else, the soft power of the two countries would have been at equilibrium, but for the sudden appearance of Pamela Anderson on the sets of Big Boss, the Indian equivalent of the reality show Big Brother. Hollywood films ran rampant on Indian screens, with the top ten movies, dubbed and otherwise, grossing almost $450 million in the Indian box office. Unlike 2009, however, when Avatar had beaten My Name is Khan to become the top grosser in India, this year, at least, Hindi films managed to hold their own. The Indian Diaspora in the United States contributed substantially to the bottomline of the Hindi film industry with the top ten movies grossing about $ 20 million at the American box office. One of the more bizarre suggestions that one got to know of through Wikileaks was that of harnessing Bollywood’s soft power and have Bollywood stars do the equivalent of a USO tour in Afghanistan to lift up the spirits of the locals, but one that was apparently never acted upon.

What will 2011 bring? More leaks from the U.S. Embassy in Delhi, for sure. With just 1947 out of the 251,287 cables released, there should be at least a few more to add to the 39 embassy cables that have so far seen the light of day. In the bilateral context, the cables show that Indian and American diplomats are formal in their interlocutions, judicious in their words, play their cards close to their chest, and give as good as they get.  The terms of endearment are evidently different in this still somewhat prickly partnership. But is that the reason why the wheel had to turn full circle is something to be considered as we enter the New Year.

The Meera Shankar Incident – The Difference in Indian and U.S attitudes

It is widely acknowledged that American & Indian societies are similar in many ways. But there are a number of differences between these two societies, differences that lie at the core of their democratic practices. Such differences keep creating controversies between the U.S and India. The latest controversy is the security pat down of Indian Ambassador Meera Shankar at Jackson Airport in Mississippi.

The facts are clear. Ambassador Shankar was singled out for a security check because she was wearing a sari. When she presented her diplomatic status, she was taken to a VIP room for the security pat down. The Indian Government was angered by what they termed as “unacceptable” treatment of an Indian Diplomat. The U.S. expressed regret and promised to ensure that such incidents are not repeated. But the U.S. has not apologized. This has created an uproar in India and perhaps rightly so.

But this issue might illustrate a significant difference between the ways these two countries treat their own citizens. Look at the complaints lodged by the Indian Government against what it considers mal-treatment of its citizens. Every single complaint is about what the Indian Government calls a VIP – a Very Important Person. Forgive me, I mean to say VVIP or Very Very Important Person.

This is no joke. These words are commonly accepted in India and used by the Indian Government. Check out any Indian Government event or any event organized by Indians. You will see a special section for VVIPs and VIPs; you will notice special handling of people of these categories. The ordinary Indian is always treated as a lower class person with a lower level of care.

Who are these VIPs? Apparently any one with “connections.” So many VIPs were created in this process that the Indian Government had to create a special category called VVIP.

How many times has the Indian Government publicly complained about how ordinary Indian citizens are treated in other countries?  Forget about treatment by other countries. Ask Indian-Americans how the Indian Consulates treat them. Stand in line at any Indian Consulate and you will hear horror stories. Try calling the Indian Consulate, say in New York. Unless you are a VIP or a European-American, you will be ignored at best. This is also the attitude you see at any security checkpoint in India. There may be a long line but VIPs routinely bypass the line and go through.

This VIP type handling also extends to foreigners in India. The Police, the Security Staff and most local government officials are careful not to subject foreigners to any trouble. Recently, the Australian Cricket team, after losing its series against India, went on a rampage. According to media reports, they broke furniture and threw it out of the windows. The police saw this but did nothing. When asked, a police official replied they did not want to embarrass the Australians.

The U.S. is very different. The Australian Cricket Team would not have had the gumption to do in the U.S. what it did in India. Had they done so, the police would have acted immediately. The Australian Government would have apologized and the Cricket Team would have been subject to fines or punishment.

This is because there is no VIP culture in America. Almost everyone has to go through the security checkups and while that might be offensive, it applies to virtually everybody. Senior ex-diplomats go through the same security check that the regular folks go through.

Indian Media often use the word “commoners” to distinguish them from VIPs. This word says it all. The U.S treats all Americans as VIPs and others as commoners. India treats Indians as commoners and foreigners as VIPs.

America is relentless about its focus on security. Its overriding mission is to prevent a terrorist attack on America. This is why security guards at airports are given the license to search anyone they feel should be searched. This is due to the realization that the local security guard is the critical part of the security chain. If their behavior hurts feelings of some people, so be it.

India is relentless about how its VVIPs are handled. Foreign officials are included in the VVIP status. Protecting the feelings of VVIPs is far more important to India than preventing terrorist attacks on Indian citizens. This is why airport security procedures are centralized and airport security staff is not given the license to stop and search any one they feel should be searched.

Rather than complaining loudly about who gets frisked in America, the Indian Government should establish a policy of randomly and regularly frisking Foreign Diplomats and VVIPs at Indian Airports. If a senior American Diplomat is subjected to a physical frisk, I suspect that diplomat would at least publicly welcome the high level of security at Indian airports.

But would Indian VVIPs publicly welcome such random frisking? I doubt it. Because that would put Indian VVIPs at the same level of the common Indian. That is a consummation to be devoutly avoided in democratic India.

I await the day when the Indian Government begins treating the ordinary Indian as a VVIP. Perhaps, Ambassador Meera Shankar can begin this process with ordinary Indian-Americans at the Indian Embassy in Washington DC.

Learning from the Meera Shankar incident

In an embarrassing moment for the U.S. and India, the Indian Ambassador to the U.S., Meera Shankar had to undergo a TSA pat down at the Jackson airport in Mississippi. The Indian Ambassador was singled out of the security line up for extra screening as she was allegedly wearing “bulking clothing” – the Indian sari in this case. A perfectly reasonable case can be made from the TSA’s ‘security concerns and procedures’ point of view. The TSA personnel were following standard security procedure, and some people might even want to pat them for implementing rules without any discrimination of rank or profile.

Meera ShankarBut this is the second time in three months that a senior Indian official has been pulled aside for security reasons at U.S. airports. The Indian Minister for External Affairs, S. M. Krishna termed the treatment meted out to the diplomat as “unacceptable.” The U.S. expressed regret over the incident and promised to ensure that such incidents are not repeated. It has however, not apologized.

Irrespective of its diplomatic implications, this incident is significant in terms of the invasive security measures undertaken by the TSA and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). What began as heighted security measures after Sept. 11, have merely increased in their intensity of invasiveness and discomfort to passengers. The ongoing debate on full body scanners at airports, have shown how the travelers personal space, privacy and dignity are disregarded, even causing trauma to some. ( Certain media reports talk of how rape and sexual abuse victims who are particularly sensitive to invasion of their personal spaces have reported being traumatized by the full body scans and pat downs.) While the importance of these measures is understandable, the TSA needs to reevaluate if they are truly helpful in eliminating dangers. Or do they add to tense paranoid atmospheres at airports, and take away the fun of travelling?

The TSA’s evaluation needs to consider how a person’s basic human dignity can be secured, along with securing borders. A smarter mechanism that outthinks terrorists, and not follows them (shoe bomber then screen shoes, panty bomber then full body scan etc) needs to be devised. A method that makes passengers want to volunteer cooperation would be much helpful over those that force them to do so. The screening procedure for foreign diplomats and other dignitaries should also be reevaluated such that the dignity of their office is not compromised even accidentally.

So will this public humiliation of the Indian Ambassador to the U.S. on U.S. soil affect bilateral relations? Unlikely. The fact that the incident came to light only through a local Mississippi newspaper and not through the Indian embassy shows that neither the Ambassador, nor India grants it enough importance to damage bilateral relations. It is highly unlikely to be perceived by India as a deliberate attempt to humiliate its diplomat. However, it is possible that a repeat of such incidents will dampen relations (particularly interpersonal relations) considering that protocol and formalities are an important part of such equation. For now though, such excesses are sure to be overlooked in the interest of the larger bilateral benefits and goals.