Narendra Modi’s visit to Brazil for BRICS later this month was the subject of much speculation last week in the international media. The ongoing Iraq crisis, resultant fall of the Rupee and comments by the Chinese President Xi Jinping make it to the weekly round-up as Team Niticentral takes stock of the India and NaMo buzz across the globe.
The India-Chinese equation is under heavy scrutiny by media from all over the world. The recently concluded anniversary meet of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence Agreement provided an insight into how the Chinese leadership would like to be perceived on its views of India.
According to a Reuters report that appeared in the Jamestown Sun on the 60th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence Agreement signed between China, Myanmmar and India, Chinese President Xi Jinping was quoted recalling the words of Rabindranath Tagore:
“That if you think friendship can be won through war, spring will fade away before your eyes”
His references to the Nobel Laureate’s words were ostensibly meant to signal that China had no expansionist intentions with the Chinese President claiming that ‘Hegemony or militarism is not in the genes of the Chinese.’ The Chinese President’s praise of India and warmth towards the new Narendra Modi-led Government were overshadowed last week by the controversy of a Chinese map showing Arunachal Pradesh as a part of China, in a grim reminder of the distance this relationship has to travel to resolve outstanding border issues.
While it may seem that India is more than a little perturbed at China’s growing economic and military clout in the region, James Holmes in National Interest claims that Indian attitudes with regard to China’s military build-up have relaxed in the recent times. He adds, “New Delhi’s more relaxed attitude toward Chinese naval expansion fits the strategic circumstances better than the anxieties of a decade ago.” Although the author maintains that this attitude serves India well as India holds significant maritime advantages of its own, he warns against any complacency that might set in as it may result in India finding itself ‘outmatched in its own backyard’.
China, Tibet – The balancing act
It is highly unlikely China looks upon Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s closeness with the Tibetan Government in exile in a similarly relaxed fashion. Writing for the Tibet Post, James Rinaldi speaks of the purposeful statement made by Dr Lobsang Sangay, the current Sikyong, or political leader of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) in Dharamshala, asking for autonomy for the Tibetans. As per Rinaldi, the statement by the Tibetan leader sent out the message to a meddling West that ‘you have had your chance, we will control the narrative from here forward and India will give us their wise counsel and the freedom to do so.’
Beyond China
While the Modi Government is looking at enhancing its business ties with Beijing, our prospects with its neighbour Taiwan are certainly looking favourable, going by Taiwanese media reports. Kevin Chen in the Taipei Times writes that Taiwan’s Bureau of Foreign Trade has said that the country would be sending a trade delegation to India in September which is likely to be followed by Taipei hosting an India-Taiwan investment forum in October. With Chinese markets approaching saturation point and the cost of manufacturing rising, Taiwan’s gaze has now turned to India with the hope of tapping into ‘information and communications technology, machinery, transportation, engineering, metal manufacturing and shoemaking, as well as the agriculture and fishery sectors.’ Bilateral trade between the two countries as mentioned in the report amounted to $6.17 billion dollars in the last year. What would instil more confidence in investors, according to the author, is an economic cooperation agreement between the two countries.
Making India business friendly
The Indian Government’s attempt to shore up confidence in foreign investors is no doubt going to be an uphill task. William T Wilson in the National Interest mentions some steps the Indian Government ought to take. First and foremost according to him the public sector banks need to be stabilised. In order to enjoy the returns of an ‘ideal demography’ it will also need to vastly improve the literacy rate in the country. Wilson notes that ‘In terms of generating employment, the key is whether Modi will allow India to become a global hub for labour-intensive manufacturing. The timing seems ripe.’ What he is alluding to is the rising labour cost in China and the cold relations between Japan and China which has resulted in the latter looking at shifting its production to other places. His essay also talks of the fact that India currently ranks 134 out of 189 countries, behind even Pakistan and Bangladesh, in the World Bank’s 2014 Ease of Doing Business.
The improvements needed range from working on the Government’s own policies that are unfavourable for large-scale businesses to ending the culture of corruption. And it is rampant corruption that will hinder India’s long-term prospects according to James Owen in Forbes. The author reports that there has been a perceptible move made by both legislative bodies and corporate to counter corruption. He asks ‘will we see the implementation of this encouraging legislative agenda? And, if so, will the regulatory bodies and the law enforcement agencies be given the autonomy and the muscle to enact any of it?’ It is this question that the Modi Government will have to provide strong and swift answers to.
Meeting defence and energy requirements
India’s growing energy demands also seek serious attention. John Cameron in the Currency News reports that the ongoing crisis in Iraq has resulted in the current slump of the Indian currency. The author writes, “The situation in the global oil market could prove to be a continuing headache for India’s new Prime Minister Narendra Modi.” There is also a fear that if the situation in Iraq continues to worsen, ‘India’s burgeoning trade deficit may now spill out of control.’
The new Government need to assuage this fear and devise means to meet India’s growing energy needs for the future as well. Reports suggest that just as China has inked a $30 billion gas deal with Russia, India too is looking to do the same. Valentin Mândr??escu in Voice of Russia says, “Financial Express reports that Narendra Modi is considering an ambitious plan to extend the natural gas pipeline between Siberia and China all the way to India.” Modi is likely to raise the issue while in Brazil for the BRICS Summit with both Russia and China.
Though India is looking at bagging energy deals and likely to maintain its defence ties with Russia it is looking at other partners too. The Government’s decision to open up the defence structure to FDI and eventually turn India into a ‘heavyweight manufacturer’ has various countries listening keenly.
Wooing Narendra Modi
As per Frank Jack Daniel in Reuters, representatives of France, the US and the UK will be arriving in Delhi to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The report quotes Harsh Pant Professor of international relations at King’s College, London as saying, “All the countries are trying to make their case, especially as there is the sense that the Indian market will undergo a shift. They get a sense from their dealings that something dramatic is going to happen and they want first-mover advantage.” The report also mentions US Senator John McCain’s statement, “This is an area where US defence capabilities, technologies, and cooperation – especially between our defence industries – can benefit India enormously.”
Senator McCain will be in India this month and will be meeting with key figures in the new leadership. The senator, according to his website, while commenting on the nature and possibilities of and India – US alliance said, “When the Prime Minister comes to Washington, I urge our Congressional leaders to invite him to address a Joint Session of Congress.” He isn’t the only one pushing for a US Congress invite to the Indian leader to address a Joint Session. The US India Political Action Committee (USINPAC), on its website, speaks of a State by State campaign for a Congressional invitation to Narendra Modi. USINPAC chairman Sanjay Puri said, “…We are delighted about the support from Congressman Ed Royce (R-CA), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, for PM Modi to address a Joint Session of Congress in September.”
PM Modi more popular than the White House
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity on Twitter continues to soar. Swati Sharma in The Washington Post reports that the Indian PM’s Twitter account has 5 million followers whereas the White House’s Twitter following stands at 4.98 million. Although he still has some way to go before he eclipses President Obama, the author makes note of Narendra Modi’s formidable presence on social media and the manner in which he used it to fight the elections. Ritika Katyal in her article for foreign policy hands it to Narendra Modi for scripting a success story in spite of having the odds heavily stacked against him. She says
“… all of India is hoping that the new Prime Minister alters the country’s destiny for the better, almost as dramatically as he altered his own.”
Source: Niti Central
