Category Archives: US Elections 2012

US Elections 2012

Presidential Polls: The Journey to the White House and Rashtrapati Bhavan

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Guest post by Madhu Nair

Just a day ago the elected representatives of the Republic of India cast their vote to elect the 13th President of the country. While Presidential polls have so far been a low key affair, the recent showdown between the ruling Congress party and the self-declared Presidential nominee PA Sangma has taken the whole process to an all new level. The government’s nominee and Ex-Finance Minister Mr. Pranab Mukherjee has won hands down, Ex-Speaker Mr. Sangma had put up a very brave front. The Presidential polls have never been such a talked about issue as the chair was usually seen as a rubber stamp post until Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam changed the face of Presidency. His reservations in the Office of Profit bill had the government see red and since then all political parties have been actively involved in the process.

While the Indians take to the button, the stage is set for a heated showdown in the United States between President Barack Obama, the Democrat nominee and Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts and the Republican candidate. With the Supreme Court giving thumbs up to the ambitious healthcare reform or Obamacare, the President is beaming with confidence which has left the Republicans fuming. Issues like immigration, economy, foreign policy, energy and environmental affairs have become the burning topics where both Obama and Romney have been trying to score points one over the other. While Romney had given Obama a run for his money initially, recent polls indicate the needle to be slightly in favor of President Obama. But that can never cast a shadow over the fight between the two most powerful people in the country. Finally, it will all come down to November when they slug it out in the fight round.

Though both India and America share being the largest democracies in the world, the chair of the President has a lot of difference. While the American President controls the government and has a greater role in governance, the President of India has limited powers when it comes to having a say in the governance of the country. As both the countries get ready to welcome their new President, here is a brief comparison between the Presidents of the two countries.

 

President of India

President of the United States

He is a figurehead. The real executive power is vested in the Prime Minister.

He is the real head of the executive.

Appoints the Prime Minister and other ministers based on the PM’s recommendation.

The members of the cabinet are nominated by the President.

Bound to follow the advice of the cabinet.

Not bound to follow the advice of the cabinet.

Has no vote power.

Has veto power.

Has a term of 5 years.

Has a term of 4 years.

Indian President represents Parliamentary Democracy.

American President represents Presidential Democracy.

Elected by indirect election by a special process known as “Electoral College”.

Elected practically by direct elections.

May be re-elected as many times as possible.

Can function for only two terms.

 
US Elections 2012

America’s Bollywood Style Election

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Elections have a way of reminding us that the gap between India and America is not quite as big as we sometimes perceive.  American Presidential candidates don’t wear white kurthas and Indian Parliamentary candidates don’t need to bother with primaries—but that is where the main differences end.  Both spend an unhealthy amount of time trying to out-demagogue their opponents, powerful vote banks grapple for influence, sloganeering is heavy while vision is frequently light, film stars have far more clout than they ought to, candidates will try to paint opponents as elitist, and in the end the outcome is determined by a few strategic geographic regions.

Stateside the mudslinging is starting to exaggerate itself to ludicrous extremes, looking almost like a Bollywood movie where party proxies trip over each other to get before cameras and pontificate, melodramatic speeches at the ready, lacking only background musical score.  What’s troubling about this scenario is that it leaves us with no sense of how either candidate will approach South Asian affairs over the next four years, at a time in which subcontinental politics are having an increasing effect on American domestic prosperity.  India has borne considerable collateral fire in the President’s attacks against his opponent, who, has not made much inroad in demonstrating he has a tangible India policy.

Continual belligerency has been the de-facto if not de-jure policy of Pakistan for well over a decade, and the cost to NATO of governments in Islamabad and Kabul being controlled by an ISI cadre, either overtly or through a parade of civilian paper tigers is immeasurable.  The Pakistan issue, directly linked to matters of nuclear security, Chinese military development and industrial espionage, terrorism and narco-trafficking, has unfortunately been lost in a fruitless, counterproductive election battle over outsourcing where emotion and rhetoric have outweighed reason and facts at every possible level.

In defense matters India, still a key player in geopolitical outcomes in Iran and Russia, has been slowly moving away from the Russian camp and showing increasing favor towards the United States and its major allies such as Israel and Great Britain.  This means not only billions of dollars in export orders and thousands of American jobs, now and for the future, but a major American foreign policy coup left unfulfilled during the cold war.  The fate of major geostrategic issues cannot be left to chance over sophomoric electioneering tactics.  That is truly un-presidential.

Each candidate and their respective party ought to take the high road, get beyond slogans and platitudes and do what the American people truly want them to do: outline a real vision for the future, inclusive of America’s key geo-strategic priorities around the world.  In the heat to win an election it is easy to remember that indifference or insensitive campaigning can do real harm to America’s important relationships overseas, who are becoming more intra-linked to American prosperity at home.

India-US Relations Blog, US Elections 2012

India and the US: The partnership that could define our age

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The US Presidential Election is right around the corner, and it is not surprising that the interest within India and amongst the Indian expats living in the U.S. and also right around the globe has seen a drastic upswing. This interest is expected to reach a crescendo by the time we get to the crucial final stages and everyone from school children to political bigwigs in India are following the race to the White House with doting eyes, and the curiosity and anxiety around being palpable indeed. The Indian media has given the election coverage its due space, voice, time, and ink, and has done a commendable job covering it thus far.

This heightened sense of anticipation comes as no surprise to many of the analysts who have often elucidated that the strength of this flourishing partnership between these two great countries is not just driven by political convenience and economic sense, but by popular consensus of its people, fuelled by a firm conviction that they share a common geopolitical destiny.

Many opinion-makers, along with other social and political commentators, have already christened the Indo-US partnership as one of the, if not, the partnership that will shape the world around us for years to come, with Democracy proving to be the mortar that binds it strongly together, seamlessly.

Although the result of the Presidential Election will be crucial as it will be the fulcrum around which all the policies and programs will be implemented with the result one way or the other having serious repercussions on how things will shape out for many, including us; the fact remains that be it Obama or Romney that ultimately prevail, it is not expected to dramatically impact the relation with India. The basic rationale behind this premonition is the fact that the fundamental reasoning and the practical logic behind the Indo-US friendship far outweigh the narrow sighted political concerns or compulsions that might sway things towards the negative and the deplorable.

Despite reports coming out of the U.S. relating to outsourcing and the recent statement on the investment climate and economic reforms in India, often hyped by the media covering the campaign, the grapevine in India suggests that no one is losing sleep over the issue and the popular sentiment in India is largely pragmatic as a strong America is considered best for India – and that outsourcing was always about making things efficient and ultimately better, wasn’t it? At least India still believes so, despite what the naysayers might say.

Obama is by and large still highly regarded in India and his visit to India is remembered fondly even today. However, in contrast, Mitt Romney remains a relative unknown in India, although his name has been associated with India; which unfortunately for him hasn’t been all that positive to say the least. Nevertheless, he does enjoy the backing of someone whose name many Indians might recognize – Bobby Jindal, Louisiana’s Indian-American governor who lambasted Obama in a tirade and labeled him the most incompetent president since Jimmy Carter. Having said that, the question still remains, does that speak to the majority of the Indian-American or for those having links with India? Probably not! But the jury is still out and many in India favor Romney to topple Obama with the majority expecting a close race too close to call just yet.

No matter what rhetoric gets thrown around, which is to be expected during the peak of campaign season, the underlying prognosis still leaves room for a guarded sense of optimism and excitement for the relationship’s future. This talks volumes to the speed at which the Indo-US relationship has developed, which has naturally attracted a lot of attention from nations with their own prejudices, biases, concerns, stake or involvement in this partnership.

India and U.S are seen as natural allies and have common values and ultimate goal, and the popular analogy used to describe the two has been that of a rising elephant and a slumbering giant, with both expected to thrive in the long-term, and more importantly, seen to be better off together. Both are all set to be key architects of change, not only for their own citizens, but for million and billions the world over who are counting on their leadership.

The partnership assumes even more significance under the economic environment that we live in today – a case in point being, “Dr. Doom”, the Economist Nouriel Roubini reiterating his predication for a, ‘perfect storm,’ among many others, and the world looking to the United States, the European Union, along with prominent countries like India and China, for a way through or over the dark clouds that loom on the horizon – too menacingly for comfort.

In India the United States has a partner it can rely on through the thick and thin, and the upcoming U.S. elections will be a significant milestone in a journey that although has many travails strewn across the anvil of time, but promises destined prosperity for both countries, its people, and the world therein. Although this partnership has had a checkered time thus far, I won’t be sullied for saying that the best is yet to come from the two greatest democracies on Earth.

US Elections 2012

Santorum’s Rise: the Republicans’ Fall

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Statistics from the recent Iowa GOP caucus revealed Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum to be in the lead, with a disparity of a mere eight votes separating the first and second place candidates. But statistics are but numbers and do not reveal the true victor of the GOP contenders’ cage-fight debates. The true GOP victor is not the newly ‘reborn’ Rick Santorum; it is not former President Bill Clinton’s congressional adversary, Newt Gingrich; it is not the neo-John Winthrop of contemporary Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, either.

The true victor? Obama. Indeed, the view from the White House looks electorally fortuitous. Despite a low approval rating surfing around 42% (Gallup.com), Obama may have the upper-hand in the 2012 presidential elections as the beneficiary of a split right-wing vote. Two decades ago, when the senior George W. Bush attempted his reelection as president, Ross Perot’s conservative independent candidacy divided the right-wing vote, subsequently allowing Democratic Bill Clinton to break the successful conservative legacy created by Ronald Reagan. Even with talks of the hitherto declining and ‘forgetful’ Rick Perry running as an independent candidate, proclaiming a literally divided vote as in 1992 seems far-stretched. More likely, however, may be an out-of-touch, overly radical Republican candidate as a whole.

But how? For one, many analysts and individuals like to focus in on the main ‘anchors’ of the GOP presidential contenders, namely Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich – the already well established and usually well (poll-wise) performing candidates. But the Iowa caucus has proven one significant plus for Obama: the GOP’s nomination is still up for grabs, an impetus for further competition. Rick Santorum was relatively a nobody, trailing behind the main anchors of the GOP with poll ratings not even in the double digits. For him to come second, and by a paltry eight votes too, shows that even for the underdogs, the coveted Republican nomination is up for grabs; the ‘anchors’ of the GOP may not individually hold the political muscle they are thought to have.

Thus far, the competition has unleashed devastating effects for many of the candidates, and as one candidate after another gets slammed, the others recoup to reclaim their shot. Newt Gingrich’s brief rise was followed by negative ad campaigns and questioning over past consulting work. Herman Cain’s lead over even Romney was followed by a crippling affair scandal (although Cain has since then suspended his bid). With each case, former supporters of one candidate swing over with little hesitation, rousing up competitors’ optimism. This newfound determination and hope adds fire to an already hot GOP contest. Santorum’s near-victory in Iowa surged nearly two million dollars in fundraising in two days (CNN.com), indicating that there is newfound trust and belief behind the neophyte senator.
Ultimately, no matter how much rhetoric comes to pass in support of Santorum, his bid is still up in the air; the Republican Party has tended to favor its more experienced comrades in the past, and Santorum’s two million dollars is petty-change compared to Romney’s $32.2 million (ABCnews.go). But Santorum’s new stardom will bring about even more negative inter-GOP rhetoric for the nomination, it will bring out or create more scandals, and, more importantly on the long run, it will push the candidates further right to woo their party for the nomination.

On the faithful day when the smoke clears for a clear GOP presidential candidate, it may be too late to for the Republicans to center up and get the American people’s moderate vote.
Indeed, score one, Obama.