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Defence And Strategic Affairs Blog

‘Ugly Stability’ in Southern Asia

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The key geo-strategic challenges in Southern Asia emanate from the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan and on the AfPak border; unresolved territorial disputes between India and China, and India-Pakistan; and, the almost unbridled scourge of radical extremism that is sweeping across the strategic landscape.

In May 1998, India and Pakistan had crossed the nuclear Rubicon and declared themselves states armed with nuclear weapons. Tensions are inherent in the possession of nuclear weapons by neighbours with a long history of conflict. The latest manifestation of this long-drawn conflict is the 20-year old state-sponsored ‘proxy war’ waged by Pakistan’s ISI-controlled mercenary terrorists against the Indian state.

While there was some nuclear sabre-rattling between India and Pakistan, particularly during the Kargil conflict, the two nations have never come close to a situation of deterrence breakdown. The “ugly stability” that is prevailing can be attributed primarily to India’s unwavering strategic restraint in the face of grave provocation, democratic checks and balances in its policy processes and tight civilian control over its nuclear forces. However, the Pakistan army, which also controls the country’s nuclear arsenal, has lost India’s trust after the Kargil conflict and the terrorist strikes at Mumbai. It is capable of once again stepping up trans-LoC terrorism or even engendering a Kargil-like situation that could escalate to a major war.

India’s border with China has been relatively more stable than that with Pakistan. However, China is in physical occupation of 38,000 sq km of Indian territory in Ladakh, J&K, and China claims the entire Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh (96,000 sq km) in the north-east. Even the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has not been demarcated on the ground and on military maps. Recently China has exhibited unprecedented assertiveness in its diplomacy and military posture. Until the territorial dispute between the two countries is resolved satisfactorily, another border conflict cannot be ruled out even though the probability is quite low.

China does not recognise India as a state armed with nuclear weapons and demands that India should go back to a non-nuclear status in terms of UNSC Resolution 1172 and, hence, refuses to discuss nuclear confidence building measures (CBMs) and nuclear risk reduction measures (NRRMs) with India. There is also a collusive nexus between China and Pakistan for nuclear weapons, nuclear-capable missiles and military hardware. Most analysts in India believe that this nexus will lead to India having to face a two-front situation during any future conflict.

The prevailing security environment in Southern Asia is not conducive to long-term strategic stability even though in the short-term there is no cause for major concern. India is developing robust military capabilities and is in the process of upgrading its military strategy against China from dissuasion to deterrence. In the nuclear weapons field, India is moving towards the deployment of the third leg of its triad, i.e. a nuclear-powered submarine armed with a submarine launched nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles (SSBN with SLBMs). This will give India genuine nuclear deterrence capability so as to prevent deterrence breakdown and reduce the risk of nuclear exchanges in any future conflict.

(Gurmeet Kanwal is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi.)

Indian-Americans and U.S. Politics Blog

‘The Voice of the Majority -1- ‘Don’t Tread on Our Religion, Our Culture’

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Every elite American newspaper is full of articles about Pakistan’s descent into religious extremism and the stunned reaction of the “westernized Pakistani elite” (as Washington Post put it) at the popular support in Pakistan for the accused assassin of Governor Salman Taseer. There is no question that successive Pakistani Military and Civilian regimes have nurtured Islamic extremism and built up the Taleban. It is also true that the assassination has severely shaken the confidence of the Pakistani elite and that of the Obama Administration.

Supports of Malik Qadri shower rose petalsI abhor any doctrine, regime or society that chooses to call itself the “Land of the Pure” or Pak-i-Stan. Once you call your society the land of the Pure, you sort of undertake the obligation to rid your society of any impure elements. That is what successive land-of-the-pure regimes have done by trying to cleanse their societies of Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, and Ahmadiyya Muslims over a 60-year period.

But I also recognize that Pakistani society has never elected religious parties in any election. They have usually voted for non-religious parties. So what turned this Pakistani society to shower rose petals on an accused assassin of a popular governor? Below is a contrarian and perhaps controversial answer.

•    The majority in every society or country expects its religion, its culture, its belief systems to be respected and protected by its government. I consider this fact to be self-evident. As a corollary, the majority tends to protest and rebel against any external pressure to modify its religious and social laws. When its own government aligns itself with the external source of pressure, the protests turn vehement. If the external forces are of another religion, then the anger can turn incendiary.

Perhaps, this is what happened in Pakistan. Rather than working quietly and discreetly to free the Christian woman sentenced under the 30-year old Blasphemy law, serious attempts were made to force Pakistan’s weak government to amend or abolish the law. This, I think, was a huge mistake. It changed the nature of the debate from being merciful to a poor woman to pressure from American and Western Christians to force a change in Pakistani society’s sacred religious principles.

In this context, an accused assassin of a popular governor became a symbol of defiance against American & Christian pressure against Muslims and a defender of the Prophet. Perhaps, a Muslim fighter against modern Christian Crusaders?  Is this so hard to understand?

I guess it is if you are a member of the American Elite and Media Elite in particular. If you think, I am being harsh, think back to their coverage of the Tea Party in America in 2010. This is the same elite section of American Establishment that once derided Core America as “small town people clinging to religion and guns”.  These are the same people who expressed outrage that over 70% of Americans were against construction of a new Mosque near the sacred Ground Zero. These American Elite accused Core Americans for becoming intolerant. It was preposterous.

There are over 90 Mosques in New York City, by some counts. So why did Americans protest so passionately against one new Mosque in New York? It was because that project seemed to symbolize an “in-your-face-America” message. It came across as a deliberate affront to America’s sacred memories and beliefs. So the American majority stood up and said, “Don’t tread on us”. The American Elite still don’t get this.

The American Elite express disapproval of religious beliefs and promotes an arrogant secularism. If they approve of someone, they call him or her “liberal”. If they don’t, they call the person “traditional” or “religious”. They misuse America’s clout to force their “secularism” on governments of countries that depend on American aid. They do not get the basic fact that the core of most societies is religious. They do not understand that their demands come across simultaneously as arrogant “irreligiousity” (to paraphrase Stratfor) and as attacks on sacred principles. So is it any surprise that their actions usually misfire as they did in Pakistan!

Perhaps they should watch Bill O’Reilly of Fox speak of “secular-progressives” in his tone of dripping contempt. If the American Elite cannot convince Bill O’Reilly, why do they think they should pressure Pakistan? If they cannot understand Core America, why do they think they can understand Core Pakistan or Core India?

How does this discussion lead to core India or to US-India relations? That is a topic for the next article.

India-US Relations Blog

The Obama Visit and U.S.-India Relations

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During those remarkable years when Indian students were flocking to U.S. colleges, acquiring skills and reputations that eventually made them the highest earning ethnic group in the U.S, the two governments were doing their damnest to destroy the relationship. Many in both governments still don’t know any better, although it is the government in Delhi that is drifting closer into dangerous waters, led by a captain without the strength to curb odd ministers running their own foreign policy. The reasons the U.S. government didn’t like Delhi in those years lay chiefly in Indira Gandhi’s bizarre attempt to enter the nuclear club in 1974, and of course the CIA’s mischievous assessment that India was a Soviet ‘ally’. The end of the cold war and George Bush’s nuclear deal should have flattened those hurdles, once and for all. The hurdles are gone, but ending a bad relationship is not the same as getting into a new one. Manmohan Singh’s courageous and tenacious performance in Parliament on the nuclear deal saw Indian political leadership at its best. The U.S. government’s worldwide arm twisting to get India the NSG waiver, demonstrated what a super power can do, when it stretches itself for a friend. Since then it’s been all downhill.

France and Russia have got the civil nuclear contracts, after the U.S. did the heavy lifting. Russia has been given the fifth generation fighter contract after the U.S. promised 100 GE 414 jet engines for India’s collapsed jet fighter project. Despite the government’s directive to all ministries to crank up the agenda for President Obama’s visit, a huge hole was created by Antony’s Ministry of Defense which is facing in a different direction. The Ministry believes that the Communications Security Agreement (CISMOA) is a devious and deliberate American plot to eavesdrop on Indian communications, as if the National Security Agency in Washington has no other means to achieve the same objective. The Logistics Agreement would have been hugely beneficial to the navy and air force to extend their reach, using U.S. assets worldwide. It was an agreement that the PLA would have paid billions for. Reciprocal facilities for unpopular U.S. wars could always have been turned down in special circumstances as Turkey did in 2002.The Indian MOD has shut the Indian armed forces off from advanced world technology by refusing to consider both. The U.S. President’s visit was eventually carried off by President Obama and Michelle Obama’s hugely effective public posturing, and some heroic behind the scene actions by corporate India and the U.S.-India CEO’s forum. Even so, the French and the Chinese signed an equal if not larger clutch of business deals with India. The President of the U.S. has a limited charter, unlike New Delhi, where there are Ministers for Coal, steel, petroleum, water, fertilizer, shipping, airlines, roads etc. So New Delhi has not yet grasped the essentials of the new world that it has to live in.

China has overtaken Japan as the world’s second wealthiest nation. Its GDP is $ 5 trillion against India’s $1.3 trillion. By 2020 both GDPs could quadruple, thereby increasing the gap from $ 3.7 to 14.8 trillion (India $ 5.2 trillion vs. China $ 20 trillion). From dams on the Brahmaputra to the Tibetan border, to the Indian Ocean – China’s power and arrogance is something India will have to live with. But how?

Will we see another Krishna Menon cozying upto China, our great Asian ‘brother’, when eventually Nehru had to write to JFK for 12 squadrons of fighter bombers, ‘flown by U.S. pilots’? There are even more unanswered questions. Will the Indian Air Force and Indian Navy sit out a Himalayan war, as they did in 1962 in the collective belief that their contribution to help the army could only make things worse? We don’t need an alliance with the US. We don’t need to get into a fight with China- not now, not ever. But how do we avoid one? Only by playing to China’s belief in Real Politik. To do that, India needs the U.S’ world class defense technology. Israel, France and Russia are alright for the middle level stuff. To get the world class stuff from the U.S. we need a relationship run by governments. The U.S.-India business councils, the Indian-Americans and the CEO’s forum can only do so much. India’s MOD cannot run its own foreign policy either.

Indian-Americans and U.S. Politics Blog

Pravasi Bharatiya Divas begins in New Delhi on Jan 7

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The 9th Pravasi Bharatiya Divas (PDB), an annual meet of non-resident Indians organized by the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs, will begin tomorrow at the Vigyan Bhavan in New Delhi, India. The three day event will be inaugurated by Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh aPBDnd includes seminars, round-table conferences, interaction with Union Ministers, cultural programs and Conferment of Pravasi Bharatiya Samman Awards. Around 1500 delegations from over 50 countries are expected to participate in the event.

The Pravasi Bharatiya Divas has grown to be one of the largest meeting points for the Indian Diaspora across continents.  PBD gives non-resident Indians an opportunity to engage, interact and build relationships with members of the Diaspora across the globe, as well as the country of their forefathers. The PBD is not just a meet and greet event, but serious deliberations on issues of concern to the community, problems facing the country, business and other opportunities presented by India etc. are also discussed alongside a plethora of cultural events. Earlier PBDs have resulted in the formulation of various schemes and plans such as the Overseas Citizenship of India scheme, establishment of Overseas Indian Facilitation Centre, conceptualization of Pravasi Bharatiya Kendra, formation of Prime Minister’s Global Advisory Council of people of Indian Origin, setting up of the India Development Foundation, and the launching of the Global Indian Network of Knowledge (Global-INK).

This year the Pravasi Bharatiya Divas would focus on the North-Eastern States of India, healthcare, education and increasing involvement of the younger generation of the Diaspora. As such, the Ministry of Development of the North Eastern Region has partnered with PBD. The Chief Ministers of the states in the region will discuss the investment opportunities in their states in a special plenary session. The relatively neglected north-eastern region is one of the most scenic and untouched parts of the country, and provides numerous opportunities for business and tourism. However, it is has been reeling under the menace of insurgents and has been unable to develop at par with the rest of the country.

Among other sessions will be the annual C.K. Prahalad memorial lecture to be delivered by Gautam Ahuja. The Chairman of Corporate Strategy and International Business group at University of Michigan’s School of Business will talk about inclusive growth. A plenary session with a group of Union Ministers will discuss business opportunities in India, while dedicated seminars on healthcare and education opportunities in India will also be conducted. The Pravasi Bharatiya Samman awards will be presented by the President of India to distinguished non-resident Indians.

Indian-Americans and U.S. Politics Blog

Make a New Year’s Resolution

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On Wednesday December 29, 2010, I heard Rick Santelli proclaim on CNBC that “This is the best country in the world and we are going to fight for it to keep it great and solvent”. This was a couple of minutes after he warned, “…I tell you what Joe, in the next couple of years I think we are going to have an internal conflict in this country of huge proportions…” Rick Santelli, the voice of the Bond Market on CNBC, is better known as one of the founding spirits of the Tea Party.

The Tea Party was the most important phenomenon in America in 2010. I am less concerned about the message, the political views or the social stance of the Tea Party. What is relevant to the rest of the World and to India in particular is the deep passion of the people who came together to form the Tea Party, their outrage at the direction in which the country was headed and the arrogance with which they saw the political establishment treat the American people. The Tea Party came together to take back their country. And they did in the November 2010 elections.

In sharp contrast is the ennui in Europe and in India. Europe seems headed towards economic, social, and perhaps demographic disaster.  The desperate state of Europe’s youth, the highest-educated generation in Europe’s history, is well described in the New York Times article Europe’s Young Grow Agitated Over Future Prospects. Europeans have realized their social system is a “Ponzi scheme,” in the words of an expert in fiscal policy quoted in the article. Yet, the European people are quiet, supine and inclined to wither away in relative silence.

In recent months, we have seen a massive corruption scheme come to light in India. The entire Indian Establishment has been shown to be a giant web of cronyism – from cabinet ministers to politicians to TV anchors to corporate lobbyists. If you are inside this web, you sit pretty. If you are outside, you face the doubling of the price of onions, the most basic food in India. This is on top of a chronic food inflation virus that is eating away at the incomes of all but those in the politico-business circle. At the same time, one hears that the education system in India, especially the College-University system, is in serious decay. Degrees are proliferating, students are graduating but the education keeps getting less and less relevant to the needs of the job market. And on top of all this, the Indian Government is giving away enormous sums of money in the name of protecting the poor.

The Indian middle class and the poor are getting caught in a vicious pincer. Yet, you do not see the middle class in India expressing their outrage. There is no evidence of either a spontaneous or an organized movement by the middle class in India to pull down the corrupt or to launch reforms that will cut down on government waste. Tea might be a great Indian export, but there is no Tea Party in India.

Unfortunately, this ennui of Indian society has been imported by Indian-Americans into America. The current downtrend has been rough on many Indian-Americans. In some sense, Indian Americans are more vulnerable. They have no political power; they are known to be quiet people. There is little risk of a backlash if Indian-Americans are laid off or fired.

Ironically, the success of a few Indian-Americans and the current media darling status of India have made it more difficult for the average Indian-American to argue unfair treatment. We forget and most don’t realize that the few Indian-Americans that have made it to the top are people who succeeded from the inside and often with the help of mentors within their own circles.

But, despite their successes and troubles, the Indian-American community has not   thrown up a vocal activist in the genre of Rick Santelli.

This is surprising. After all, being a “loud mouth” is an Indian characteristic. The Indian protest against British rule began with “loud mouth” lawyers, professors and journalists expressing their anger in print and in political forums.

But today’s Indian-American middle class does not exhibit this spirit. Without this spirit, the Indian-America community will remain on the periphery of American society, a quiet, affluent but powerless and invisible microcosm. That would be a pity.

It is necessary for each Indian-American to make a resolution this New Year to fight for some goal or against some problem. Speak out fervently and rationally for or against issues that they care about. No issue is too small or too large. It is important that you protest, in person, over the phone or via email. Share your outrage with your friends and build a movement.

If you don’t fight for what you believe, you truly doom yourself and your community to obscurity.