Tag Archives: ISI

ISI in the Doghouse – Again

The Kashmiri American Council, based in Washington D.C. and headed by Ghulam Nabi Fai, has been established by Pakistan’s ISI to influence public opinion about Kashmir, according to the FBI. Fai is of Kashmiri origin but a US citizen. For almost two decades, the ISI has been channeling funds through Fai to make contributions to American political leaders by way of campaign contributions to lobby against India in the United States Congress, hold international seminars to launch attacks on the government of India regarding alleged human rights violations in Kashmir and print propaganda pamphlets. A total of US$ 4 million was allegedly funneled by the ISI to the U.S. to influence political leaders with a view to changing U.S. policy on Kashmir.

614_x_261All of these activities were in violation of U.S. laws but the authorities appear to have chosen to ignore them, possibly because of Pakistan’s status as an ally in the so-called global war on terror and perhaps as a quid pro quo for the Pakistan army and the ISI keeping quiet about similar CIA activities in Pakistan. The killing of Osama bin Laden at Abbottabad in May this year irrevocably altered the cozy relationship between the ISI and the CIA. This is what led to the arrest of Fai and his fellow conspirator Zaheer Ahmed on July 19th. Their prosecution will once again reveal the perfidious and duplicitous nature of the Pakistan army and its rogue intelligence agency – the ISI.

The international conferences organized by the KAC were attended by several influential Indians as well, among them Mr. Subramaniam Swamy, a member of Parliament and Mr. Dilip Padgaonkar, a former journalist who is now a member of the prime minister’s task force on Kashmir. Both of them have denied knowledge of Fai’s background and his affiliation with the ISI.

There are other such organizations which are supported by the ISI in Europe and elsewhere. They are usually NGOs that support the Kashmiri people’s ‘right to self determination’. The never tell the paid audiences that gather for their propagandist conferences that free and fair elections have been held in Jammu and Kashmir continuously at least since the mid-1990s and that a people’s government has been in power. On the contrary, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir is governed directly by Islamabad and the people of POK are treated like second class citizens.

According to the Washington Post, “News of the case reverberated through Pakistan’s military and intelligence apparatus on Wednesday, where many suspect the timing of the charges was in retaliation for recent expulsions and arrests of Americans in Pakistan.” However, the FBI has denied any such linkage. The arrests are certainly likely to lead to yet another dip in US-Pakistan relations in the short term. However, as long as American troops remain in Afghanistan in large numbers and their supply lines continue to pass through Quetta and Peshawar, the U.S. has no option but to keep the Pakistan army and the ISI humored in its own national interest.

Worst-case scenario for Pakistan

Pakistan’s civil society is gradually being torn apart by radical extremism and sectarian violence and its powerful army seems incapable of stemming the rot. The daring attack by terrorists of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on the naval aviation base at Mehran, Karachi is the latest case in point. The hypothesis that Pakistan’s nuclear warheads may fall into Jihadi hands has once again gained currency.

Pakistan has been besieged by creeping Talibanization. Ground attack fighter aircraft, helicopter gunships and heavy artillery had to be used in 2007-08 to liberate the Swat Valley and Buner from the Sharia rule imposed by Maulana Fazlullah‘s militants. It took major military operations and large-scale army casualties to drive TTP extremists out of South Waziristan in 2009. Though TTP leader Baitullah Mehsud was killed in a U.S. drone strike, the extremists simply moved into North Waziristan and still operate from there. The Army HQ at Rawalpindi and ISI headquarters in Lahore have been successfully attacked by the Taliban in league with al-Qaeda. Bomb blasts in Peshawar and elsewhere are a daily occurrence. Bahawalpur in south Punjab has become a hub for ideological indoctrination.

The Pakistan army and its rogue intelligence agency, the ISI, are having a tough time living up to their carefully cultivated hype as the self-appointed ‘defenders of the faith’ and the custodians of Pakistan’s ‘ideological frontiers’. The rank and file supports the Taliban cause and is unwilling to forgive the generals for allying with the U.S. in its war on terror. The troops are reluctant to operate against fellow Sunni Muslims. The Pushtuns, in particular, are unwilling to fight fellow Pushtuns. In 2007, an army company surrendered to the Taliban. Desertions are commonplace; cases of fratricide are often reported and many weapons have been lost to the Taliban. Apprehensions have been expressed about the radicalization of the officer cadre. Nearly six army divisions are employed in counter-insurgency operations in the Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa and FATA areas but progress in eliminating the Taliban has been painfully slow.

Despite being in tight spot, the Pakistan army and ISI continue to make facetious distinctions between the good Taliban—’strategic’ assets for employment against India and in Afghanistan—and bad Taliban. Their support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed is undiminished. In Afghanistan they are running with the hares and hunting with the hounds and are still looking for strategic depth. If Pakistan has earned the dubious distinction of having become the epicentre of fundamentalist terrorism, it is because the army and ISI, driven by their hatred for India, have blundered so badly.

The worst case scenario for Pakistan over the next two to three years will be a Jihadi-led coup from within the army. Radicalized officers owing allegiance to the TTP variety of Taliban could come to power. The probability of this is low but the steady deterioration in the security situation and the army’s unwillingness and inability to fight the scourge of Talibanization means the possibility cannot be ruled out. In such a nightmarish scenario, with near civil war conditions prevailing, nuclear weapons may actually be used against U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan and targets in India. This would mean a holocaust on the Indian subcontinent.

It is time the international community seriously considered neutralizing Pakistan’s nuclear warhead storage sites and the delivery systems. It would be in India’s interest to join such an initiative. India should be prepared to provide military assistance, including direct intervention. The U.S. must lead the international community in efforts to convince General Kayani that the only way forward is to launch determined counter-terrorism operations to weed out the TTP, LeT, JeM and other terrorist groups that have enjoyed state patronage. The consequences of not doing so are too horrendous to contemplate.